A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
